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March 31,2008 Market Commentary and Outlook

History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.
-Mark Twain

During the 4^th Quarter of 2007, there were discussions about the odds a recession would ensue. Then after the start of 2008, many began wondering if we were already in a recession. Some argued we were only in a “mild slowdown of economic activity” and we should not even speak of a recession until the economy had two successive quarters of negative growth (a widely accepted definition¹ of a recession). Isn’t that like saying, “Don’t worry about skating on thin ice until you break through”?

If we are only in a slowdown, explain the interest rate decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee (aka, the Fed). The Federal Funds Rate has been lowered a total of 3 percentage points since September 2007. Only once before has such a steep drop occurred in a seven month period (August 1984 through March 1985). By contrast when the Fed began to raise rates in 2004, it took them 2 years to raise rates by 4.25 percentage points from 1% to 5.25%!

This 3 percentage point cut in the Federal Funds Rate² is the largest percentage drop (a 57.1% drop) since September 1982. Coming in a close second to the recent drop was a 55.1% decline over the 7 months ending November 2001—the last time we were in a recession.

The U.S. lost jobs in each month of the 1^st Quarter 2008 and manufacturing contracted at the fastest pace in five years. Consumer confidence continues to decline and the housing market extends its slump. Revisions to 4^th Quarter growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the U.S. economy came in at an annual rate of 0.6%—a sharp decline from the 2^nd Quarter’s rate of 3.9% and the 3^rd Quarter’s rate of 4.7%.

Do you hear the sounds of ice popping and cracking? Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in testimony to Congress this past week almost used the R- word!

Some economists liken a recession to a forest fire. They will argue periodic burns can contribute to overall forest health by clearing dead wood from the forest floor and lowering tree branches, providing ideal growing conditions for many desirable species. Similarly, economists see the benefits of a recession, such as a reduction of inflationary pressures, a working-off of supply-demand imbalances, and a reallocation of production resources to more efficient uses. Small consolation if your house burns down, you lose your job, or the value of your stock portfolio gets hammered!

Oh, did we mention that Bear Markets can accompany recessions? Since the end of World War II, 7 of 10 U.S. recessions suffered Bear Markets (the other three had “Corrections”). The majority of the Corrections and Bear Markets began in advance of, or early in, each recession.

Let’s get our definitions right so we can determine how thick or thin the ice is. A Bear Market is often defined as one in which a financial market declines at least 20% in value. “Corrections” are declines in value ranging from 10% to 20%. Since its closing high of 1565.15 on October 9, 2007 to its subsequent closing low of 1273.37 on March 10, 2008, the S&P 500—one of the most widely-watched, stock market indices—declined 18.64%. We have not yet met the technical definition of a Bear Market for the S&P 500, but taking comfort from this might be “whistling past the graveyard” if one realizes that other types of stock markets, e.g., U.S. Small Capitalization stocks and most foreign markets, are experiencing Bear Markets.

But haven’t the actions of the Fed made it less likely that we will have a recession, or at least, that it will be mild? Largely due to investor’s enthusiastic response to some very unprecedented actions of the Fed in late March, the S&P 500 thankfully has recovered from its low of March 10, closing on April 4 (the day this commentary was written) at 1,370.40. From its peak, the S&P 500 is now down only 12.44%.

Financial markets never go straight up or straight down. There are always “Bear Market Rallies” within declining markets, giving investors false hope that the market has “bottomed.” Conversely, there are regular periods of declining prices in Bull Markets to make investors nervous. Fear and greed are significant driving forces which affect the movement of the financial markets: peak levels of optimism are often followed by corrections, and vice versa. Similarly, the economy is impacted by the optimism and euphoria (or alternatively, pessimism and despair) of the consumer since consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of GDP.

Let’s assume (and hope!) that the recent recovery of the S&P 500 will not prove to be merely a Bear Market Rally. If indeed March 10 was the low and you classify the recent performance of the S&P 500 as a “Bear Market” because of the performance of other stock markets, the index’s close on March 10 will represent the highest level of relative valuation that has ever prevailed at the bottom of an S&P 500 Bear Market. In other words, it was a Correction!

The table below has some interesting statistics about recessions and the accompanying performance of the S&P 500—including performance once the market’s lows were set.

Does history repeat itself? Or in this instance, will there be any “rhyming”?

In our commentary of the 2^nd Quarter, 2005, we first expressed our concerns that rising interest rates could burst the housing “bubble” (its subsequent, negative impact on the economy now known all too well.) We did not expect that the housing market’s decline would take as long as it did before it would negatively impact stock prices (although we knew its impact would be negative). Nor did we anticipate that the U.S. credit markets would be in such desperate shape that financial firms would write off tens of billions of losses from mortgage-related securities. Nor that the nation’s 5^th largest brokerage firm (Bear Stearns) would collapse overnight.

The risk remains that there are still some “surprises” about the poor condition of the balance sheets of corporations, particularly financial institutions. Faced with a significant credit crunch and liquidity problems, the Fed has initiated three creative endeavors: Term Auction Facility, Term-Securities Lending Facility, and Primary Dealer Credit Facility programs. Many commentators bemoan the fact the Fed’s action—particularly involving the bail out of Bear Stearns—has made it likely the U.S. taxpayer will bear the burden of billions of dollars of potential losses properly those of the greedy. “Heads,” Wall Street financiers win; “tails,” the taxpayer loses. But those same commentators will not disagree that some action was necessary to avoid a catastrophic meltdown of the financial markets were Bear Stearns to declare bankruptcy (which it would have done but for the Fed’s action).

Let’s ignore for the moment that the Fed was certainly asleep for many years as today’s problems in the credit markets developed. Will the Fed’s newly-initiated and various lending programs turn the tide? Or will they merely plug the dike?

We think the stock markets cannot recover meaningfully until the credit crisis is resolved; that here is an active “structured financing market”; and, financial firms are adequately recapitalized. The Fed is hoping that its aggressive actions are enough “lipstick on the pig” to cause credit markets to settle down and unwind some of their excesses in a more orderly fashion. Only the aggressive investor, or one heavily in cash, should begin to accept greater amounts of risk in his or her portfolio without further evidence the tide has turned.

The disaster that struck Bear Stearns was because of the significant borrowings they undertook to gain leverage through the purchase of mortgage securities that ultimately proved to be illiquid. Some hedge funds have suffered the same fate as Bear Stearns (one of which was reported to have leveraged its underlying capital 32 times!) The lesson to be learned here is that individual investors should look closely at their personal household balance sheets and work hard to minimize the debt they carry.

When analyzing your investment portfolio, keep in mind the following:

• Declines in market valuations are inevitable; the timing of declines is what is uncertain.
• Investment returns must be measured over complete market cycles, and not just in the Bull and Bear portion of the cycle.
• Diversification by asset class and management style within your portfolio is an absolute necessity.
• Market timing (selling high and buying low) only works if you can make two successive, prescient decisions in a row—a very difficult challenge. It’s not enough to sell high if you then fail to buy back at a lower market level.
• Financial markets do react to current economic events, but they also price in expectations of future events. Markets can forecast an improvement in the economy and can recover much earlier than an economy in recession might recover.
• When the market turns bullish, there will not have been any pre-announcement (complicating efforts to market time). Movement will be quick and significant gains are earned in the early stages of a market recovery.

Perhaps most important of all, remember Bear Markets do end, and historically, Bull Markets are stronger and last longer than Bear Markets. In the long run, returns in Bull Markets have offset the declines of their preceding Bear Markets.

Investment Committee
Northwest Capital Management, Inc.
April 4, 2008

1 The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official arbiter of recessions, defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale retail sales."

2 The interest rate on very short-term loans from one commercial bank to another. This is used as a target for monetary policy by the FOMC.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This article has been distributed for educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. Opinions are subject to change without notice. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Northwest Capital Management, Inc. Northwest Capital Management, Inc. is a firm registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. ©2008, Northwest Capital Management, Inc.

December 31, 2007 Market Commentary and Outlook

Lisa Simpson: Do you know that the Japanese use the same word for “crisis” that they do for “opportunity?”
Homer Simpson: Yes, CRISI-TUNITY!
-The Simpsons, 12/18/1994

Few will argue that the U.S. economy is in crisis: falling home values, higher unemployment, low consumer confidence, huge losses attributable to sub-prime lending practices, rising oil prices and a falling dollar. During 2007 the stock market had often shrugged off such conditions. But in the 4th Quarter, performance of the stock market began to turn negative reflecting the economy’s woes—a pull-back some thought long overdue.

According to a Gallup poll, more than half of Americans expect a recession, while more than two-thirds feel dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time – a level not seen since 1993.1 Because so much of the U.S. economy (and that of the world’s) is dependent on consumer spending, a decline in consumer confidence is not healthy for America’s corporate balance sheets.

But with crisis, comes opportunity. For the U.S. Government, there is now an opportunity to restructure and revitalize the mortgage lending industry. Some of the difficulties facing the U.S. economy are the result of years of low interest rates and loose regulation. In recent years, mortgage lenders extended too much credit to troubled borrowers on terms that neither the borrowers nor the lenders could afford. The majority of these loans were with adjustable rates and little buyer equity. When interest rates became higher at a mortgage’s reset and the resulting increased loan payments became unaffordable, many borrowers found that the declining value of their homes made refinance or sale impossible. The bursting of the housing bubble will likely force many borrowers into bankruptcy. Worried that defaults will surge in 2008 as monthly payments adjust higher, banks have begun to hoard cash and curtail both institutional and retail lending, causing a dangerous state of credit gridlock. Can the Federal Reserve and/or Congress effect meaningful reform and offer distressed home owners real assistance? We will let you answer this question.

No doubt many are feeling significant, economic pain. But the opportunity in such a crisis for others will come with the ability to buy stocks and real estate with cash on hand—but not without a great deal of risk. The trick is knowing when to make those purchases. We think it highly likely the financial markets will remain very volatile for the near term as solutions for housing, credit, and banking problems are worked out.

In the table below, we select two highly divergent investment outlooks from the multitude of possible scenarios that can unfold:

During a crisis, even a small change in the timing and nature of government intervention can drastically influence the investment outlook. Given the unpredictability of such intervention (and its effectiveness), we consider focused, event-driven investment strategies to be particularly risky. All too often, the financial markets behave like a manic depressive: What might be thought of as good news on one day can be negatively received on another. Other events might occur to negate or over-shadow what otherwise might be a positive intervention.

We still consider it wise to focus on one’s investment objectives, be they short-term or long-term, and to build a broadly diversified portfolio whose holdings are consistent with your investment time lines. We believe different asset classes such as cash, bonds, and stocks each have unique volatility characteristics. And it is the potential for volatility that dictates whether or not a particular asset class should be held in your portfolio and in what percentage. We have said this many times before: The fact the stock market goes down should never be a surprise to anyone. When it goes down, however, is the surprise. While a well-diversified portfolio might not take maximum advantage of each and every investment opportunity along the way, it can provide more stability if conditions unexpectedly change for the worse.

Our Take for 2008

As we head into 2008, economic and market conditions will continue to be influenced by the ongoing slump in the housing sector. We’re watching for:

Above normal risk of a recession. Whether the odds are 30%, 50%, or 70%, one thing is for certain – the risk of recession is higher than normal. Factors pointing towards recession include rising unemployment claims, falling durable goods orders, weak consumer confidence, high oil prices, lackluster retail sales, falling home sales and prices, declining corporate earnings, credit gridlock, rising personal bankruptcies, and questions regarding the solvency of hedge funds and financial institutions. Should a recession develop, stock prices could head south.

Continued stock market turbulence. Stock prices are likely to remain volatile as repercussions of the credit crisis ripple through the economy. Should credit problems worsen, high-quality companies with strong balance sheets will have a competitive advantage. If, however, credit conditions normalize, weaker companies may outperform on the rebound.

Troublesome consumer price inflation. Barring a moderate-to-deep recession, consumer prices may continue to rise at an undesirable pace as the effects of a weak U.S. dollar and high oil prices propagate throughout the economy. As of November 2007, the trailing one-year inflation rate stood at 4.3%.

Low short-term interest rates. Credit worries and shaky economic growth should keep short-term interest rates in the basement for the next few months. While bonds currently offer little real yield after inflation, they can provide a safe haven in the event that the current credit crisis deteriorates into a full-fledged recession.

Are We There Yet?

The U.S. economy, like a supertanker, is extremely large and difficult to steer. As a result, economic conditions—good or bad—can sometimes persist for longer than one might expect. Based on information from the National Bureau of Economic Research, a recession, should one develop, could last anywhere from six months to five years or more. Since World War II, U.S. recessions have on average lasted 10 months.

Fortunately, economic expansions tend to last much longer. Since World War II, the average economic expansion lasted nearly five years, providing investors with plenty of time to allow their investment capital to grow. For the long-term investor, this can mean more dough, and to quote Homer Simpson again, fewer “d’oh’s”.

Investment Committee
Northwest Capital Management, Inc.
January 3, 2008

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This article has been distributed for educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. Opinions are subject to change without notice. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Northwest Capital Management, Inc. Northwest Capital Management, Inc. is a firm registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. ©2008, Northwest Capital Management, Inc.

September 30, 2007 Market Commentary and Outlook

The U.S. housing market has been in a near-tailspin. With new home sales the weakest in seven years, inventories of unsold homes climbed to an 18-year high, while existing home prices fell -3.9% from the previous year. The portion of subprime adjustable rate mortgages past due or in foreclosure reached nearly 15% in July, roughly triple the low seen in mid-2005.

As home prices fell, many homeowners found their mortgage debt to be greater than the value of their home. Interest rates on many adjustable rate mortgages increased to levels many homeowners could no longer afford, while refinancing opportunities became increasingly difficult to find. As a result, many distressed borrowers walked away from their homes, leaving their lenders to absorb their losses.

Despite its ferocity, the housing downturn comes as no surprise. For months, analysts had predicted that overbuilding, speculation, lax lending practices, and natural fluctuations in interest rates would eventually trigger a rise in defaults among subprime loans that would precipitate a broad-based housing market reversal.

But few analysts predicted that Main Street’s housing problem would soon become Wall Street’s credibility problem — until droves of investors began to frantically purge their portfolios of subprime exposure. Concerned that bond ratings did not accurately assess the risk of their subprime-related securities, many bondholders took a “slash and burn” approach to subprime-related investments — selling first, and asking questions later. Such concerns may well prove to be justified.  In September, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission announced that it had launched an investigation to determine whether banks and other debt issuers had pressured ratings agencies to give high ratings to bonds backed by subprime mortgages.

Broad Market Fallout

The repercussions from the housing downturn are currently working their way through global markets. While the channels of cause and effect can be murky at times, we believe the housing downturn is at least partly responsible for the following conditions:

• Tighter credit; restricted growth. Lenders and investors have adopted stricter standards, putting a squeeze on the spending and growth plans of many would-be borrowers.
• Stock price volatility. Sharp fluctuations in earnings of homebuilders and lenders have caused stock price volatility to rise to a four-year high.
• Lower short-term interest rates. Investors’ flight to ultra high quality investments has driven short-term Treasury yields down by nearly 1% during the quarter. In response to the liquidity crisis, the Federal Reserve cut the Fed funds rate from 5.25% to 4.75% in September.
• Decline in the exchange value of the U.S. dollar. Foreign investors, stung by losses related to U.S. subprime loans, have become increasingly wary about investing in dollar-denominated debt. Lower U.S. short-term interest rates and growing fears of a recession have pushed the U.S. dollar to an all-time low.
• Restrained consumer spending. Higher interest rates on adjustable rate mortgages have drained consumers of discretionary cash, while sagging home values have limited home equity borrowing opportunities. Corporate earnings, as a result, are now under significant stress.

What’s Next?

It is likely that the housing slowdown will play a large role in driving investment results in coming quarters. Should the subprime crisis continue to expand, there is the possibility of one or more of the following events:

• Recession. Tighter credit and the “negative wealth effect” of declining home prices may choke off economic growth in coming months. In a September 13th Wall Street Journal survey, economists pegged the risk of a recession at 36%, up from 28% a month earlier.
• Corporate earnings slowdown. Even if a recession does not occur, the ongoing credit squeeze may restrain business and consumer spending, leading to slower economic growth and weaker corporate earnings in months to come. On September 27th, Standard & Poor's estimated that third-quarter profits for the S&P 500 index will be up just 2.4% from the third quarter of 2006 — the weakest year-over-year increase in over five years.
• Lower short-term interest rates. On September 18th, the Federal Reserve explained its ½% Fed funds rate cut as serving to “forestall the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets.” There is a reasonable likelihood that the Fed will continue cutting rates in coming months to relieve distressed home borrowers and to stimulate growth over time.
• Stock market volatility. A downshifting U.S. economy could drive investors to seek opportunities elsewhere. However, falling short-term interest rates and a weaker U.S. dollar may make U.S. corporations more attractive buyout targets, especially to foreign investors.

The Sky Isn’t Falling

Despite the challenging housing environment, U.S. large company stocks, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, returned +2.0% during the quarter, closing the quarter near an all-time high. Stock prices were supported by a remarkable 4% decline in the U.S. dollar that made shares of U.S. companies significantly cheaper for foreign investors to buy, while making U.S. goods more attractive on overseas markets.

While the dollar’s decline tends to support stock prices, it has a potential major drawback — it can make imported goods more expensive, thus leading to inflation. The weak dollar also may be less helpful to smaller, non-exporting companies. In the 3rd quarter, mid- and small-sized companies returned -0.9% and -3.1%, respectively.

What’s Your Risk Tolerance?

During the 3rd quarter of 2007, we saw above-average stock market volatility. By mid-August, the S&P 500 Index had dipped by slightly more than 6%. Fortunately, the Index recovered to close the quarter with a modest gain. But had the market not recovered, would a 6% decline have been considered an unusual market occurrence?

During the past decade, there were many calendar quarters that experienced declines of 6% or greater, with one quarter’s  decline as great as -17.28% — nearly three times worse than the recent intra-quarter dip.

(*) Ending values assume hypothetical indexed portfolio tracks perfectly with S&P 500 Index.

The recent recovery in the stock market is an opportunity to reassess your tolerance for investment risk. When stocks declined during this past quarter, did you wish you had less exposure? As stocks recovered, did you wish you held more? The challenge during today’s market turbulence will be for each of us to prepare for the possibility of stock market volatility, and to verify that our chosen investment mix is appropriate for our long term goals and risk tolerance.

Not knowing with certainty what the future will bring, we continue to believe portfolios can benefit from asset class, management style, capitalization and geographical diversification. While diversification is not a miracle cure, it can help protect a portfolio from catching cold during a period of market contagion.

Investment Committee
Northwest Capital Management, Inc.
October 3, 2007

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This article has been distributed for educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. Opinions are subject to change without notice. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Northwest Capital Management, Inc. Northwest Capital Management, Inc. is a firm registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. ©2007, Northwest Capital Management, Inc.

June 30, 2007 Market Commentary and Outlook

Money, Time, and Risk

Remember that time is money.
Benjamin Franklin
Advice to a Young Tradesman (1748)

Ben Franklin’s observation that “time is money” doesn’t just apply to earned wages—it also applies to interest rates and investments. In fact, the relationship between time and money is so critical that it can affect the market value of virtually every investment you own.

The reason interest rates are so central to investment value is that investments aren’t priced in a vacuum—they are priced relative to each other. And, in many cases, interest rates are the primary measuring stick against which investments are valued. For example, a stock may appear attractive when a competitive interest-bearing security, such as a bank certificate of deposit, yields only 2.5%. However, if the bank CD were to yield 5.5%, the stock might be viewed as unattractive on a comparative basis, causing its valuation to decline.
 
This is why recent news relating to the value of time and risk is important to all investors, even those who hold few or no interest-bearing securities.

Revaluing Risk

The second quarter began with upbeat reports of rising economic growth, share buybacks, and corporate merger activity. However, as the weeks passed, several developments caused investors to reconsider their risk exposures.
 
Subprime mortgage woes. Rising interest rates squeezed homebuyers; home sales and prices sagged, mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures rose, and the “home equity ATM” effectively shut down. Regulators, concerned that lax lending standards had contributed to the surge in subprime defaults, issued tougher lending guidelines for subprime loans.

Real estate trends are often self-reinforcing. Weakness in residential housing activity, now entrenched, may not subside until 2008, as stricter lending standards threaten to prolong the chill in the national housing market.

Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) come under scrutiny. In an attempt to minimize mortgage default risk, Wall Street cut its lines of credit to two Bear Stearns

hedge funds that were heavily invested in CDOs which were backed by subprime mortgages. This move raised the prospect of a forced liquidation of subprime CDOs that could cause a general write-down of similar securities.

When market conditions change rapidly, model-based prices for illiquid securities such as CDOs are sometimes discovered to be inaccurate. It is for this reason that daily-valued mutual funds generally restrict or prohibit illiquid securities.

By the end of the quarter the premium demanded for taking on additional risk, or committing for longer periods of time in the case of fixed income securities, had clearly risen. U.S. Treasury note yields had climbed by +0.4%. Stock prices began to falter in June as rising bond yields competed for investors’ dollars and put pressure on corporate earnings and acquisitions.  

If bond yields continue to rise, it could have a negative effect on the stock market.

Stock Outlook

While this past quarter’s higher interest rates and tighter credit conditions have acted to discourage stock market risk-taking, there are still several powerful factors that could drive equity prices higher:

• Strong global growth. The world economy is projected to grow at a 4.9% annual clip in 2007-2008, more than a percent faster than it has over the past two decades, providing abundant investment opportunities worldwide.
• A weak dollar. As the dollar’s exchange value approaches a 10-year low, U.S. goods and service providers become more competitive in the global marketplace. An inexpensive dollar also makes the stock of U.S. companies appear attractive to foreign investors, thus raising the prospect of further acquisition activity.
• Expanding manufacturing. The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index is at the highest level in over a year, providing evidence of a resilient economy and industrial sector.
• Mergers, acquisitions, and private equity buyouts. Domestic and international players continue to acquire U.S. companies at a rapid clip, driving up equity valuations, and creating new opportunities and efficiencies.

Managed Portfolio Perspective

In the past few years, the U.S. economy and capital markets have fallen slightly out of sync with their global counterparts, due to a variety of factors such as the Iraq War, the rise of emerging markets, and a sharp boom-and-bust housing cycle. During such topsy-turvy periods, geographical and asset class diversification are of great benefit to investors. Our tactical strategy seeks to geographically diversify both equities and fixed income. We are maintaining an overall defensive posture while the Federal Reserve attempts to pilot our economy to a “soft landing”. Our current strategy by asset class:

• Domestic Large Cap: Near-neutral allocation, with an emphasis on value.
• Domestic Mid- and Small-Cap: Underweight small- and mid-cap stocks to protect capital in the event of an economic downturn or recession.
• International Stock: Maintain near-neutral allocation, with an emphasis on value.
• Bonds and Cash: Overweight, tilted towards shorter-term investments, while using global bonds to improve diversification.
• Investment Manager Selection: Seek investment managers that have a demonstrated ability to preserve capital during adverse conditions.

Why Diversify?

During a bull market, such as the one we’ve experienced lately, it is possible to overlook the value of diversification. Before you put all of your investment eggs in a single basket, consider the following investment modeling results:

This example demonstrates that by blending dissimilar investments, it is possible to enhance overall performance, while controlling volatility. While the benefits of diversification can be modest at times, they should never be overlooked, for as Ben Franklin observed, “a penny saved is a penny earned.”

Investment Committee
Northwest Capital Management, Inc.
July 5, 2007

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This article has been distributed for educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. Opinions are subject to change without notice. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Northwest Capital Management, Inc. Northwest Capital Management, Inc. is a firm registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. ©2007, Northwest Capital Management, Inc.

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